From COP28 to COP29 with Ukraine at the Front: Linking Climate, Security and Peace

The ongoing war of Russia against Ukraine has multidimensional impacts on global security, fundamentally reshaping geopolitical alignments and human security paradigms. These impacts extend beyond traditional security concerns to encompass energy security, water access, food systems, and climate action imperatives (Smith, 2022). The devastation in Ukraine has starkly highlighted that acute vulnerabilities faced by war-affected countries extend far beyond state borders, creating cascading effects on neighbouring regions through displaced populations, disrupted ecosystems, transboundary pollution, strained natural resources and climate damage. 

Meanwhile, the analysis of Ukraine's war-time experience highlights the importance of maintaining climate commitments even during active conflict and reconstruction planning, leading to new thinking about more flexible support mechanisms that can address both immediate war recovery and longer-term climate resilience (IMF, 2024) [3].

from COP28 media hub image library

The COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace, formally launched at COP28 on 3 December 2023, enshrines a collective commitment to increase investment and actions to drive resilience in countries and communities affected by conflict, fragility or humanitarian crisis. It primarily focuses on climate finance for highly vulnerable and fragile settings along with an initial package of financial, technical and institutional capacities and all-level partnerships solutions (UNFCCC, 2023a) [4]. The Declaration's objectives were supported by financial commitments, including the Global Fund's USD 300 million pledge for health system preparedness, coupled with the Rockefeller Foundation's USD 100 million commitment for climate and health solutions and a pledge of up to GBP 54 million from the UK Government. 

The launch of the Declaration was followed by the Joint Communique of the "COP29-Climate and Peace" issued on 26-27 July 2024 by the Leads Group  and endorsed by Egypt, Germany, Italy, Uganda, the United Kingdom and Azerbaijan [5]. On September 27, 2024, at the 79th United Nations General Assembly  in New York, the COP28 and COP29 presidencies jointly hosted a high-level event focusing on climate action and finance in vulnerable countries facing conflict and humanitarian crises [6]. The meeting was attended by over 30 parties and key financial actors, who demonstrated renewed commitment. In particular, the Green Climate Fund announced plans for customized climate programs in fragile countries and the Islamic Development Bank pledged US$1 billion in climate finance for fragile countries over three years.

While these initiatives demonstrate growing political momentum, fundamental questions about legal frameworks and implementation mechanisms remain unaddressed. Though the Declaration represents a crucial first step in recognizing the unique challenges faced by conflict-affected and fragile states, it sits outside the UNFCCC negotiations as a voluntary, nonbinding political declaration. Meanwhile, the current pledged amounts represent only a fraction of the estimated needs for climate action in fragile states, raising questions about the legal obligations and mechanisms needed to ensure adequate and sustained funding. The planned Baku Climate and Peace Action Hub's operational structure requires clear regulatory frameworks to govern fund distribution, accountability measures, and stakeholder responsibilities. The current short-term nature of funding commitments (2-3 years) necessitates the development of feasible regulatory instruments to ensure long-term financial sustainability for climate resilience building in fragile contexts. Critical concerns persist about establishing legally binding monitoring and reporting requirements in conflict-affected areas where verification poses unique challenges. The absence of formal legal mechanisms to guarantee direct access for local organizations and communities in fragile states, coupled with existing bureaucratic barriers, threatens effective implementation.

With energy and water infrastructure damaged, agricultural lands compromised, and significant population displacement, Ukraine's situation embodies the interconnected challenges that the upcoming COP29 Peace, Relief, and Recovery Day aims to address.

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector have resulted in the damage or destruction of 13 gigawatts of capacity across Ukraine. 30% of forests in conflict zones have suffered direct damage or increased fire vulnerability, while 2.4 million hectares of land face contamination from explosives, limiting agricultural use and threatening biodiversity. Water infrastructure damage has affected not only human settlements but also crucial wetland ecosystems, with the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023 creating unprecedented environmental challenges for the entire lower Dnipro basin.  These cascading impacts have significant climate implications - having contributed to the war's massive carbon footprint, generating at least 175 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) [7].

Meanwhile, Ukraine's commitment to green reconstruction, including plans to phase out coal by 2035 and achieve net-zero emissions, demonstrates how climate objectives can be maintained even in crisis situations. Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukraine has consistently strengthened its climate policy framework, as evidenced by the June 2023 legislation to boost renewable energy investment and modernize the energy system, followed by the July 2023 reaffirmation to phase out state-owned coal power plants by 2035 [8]. This commitment was solidified with the adoption of the framework climate law in 2024, which legally enshrined Ukraine's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, aligning with European Union timelines [9]. Ukraine's targets include sourcing 25% of total energy supply from renewables by 2035 with substantial expansion of wind and solar generation [10]. Noteworthy, in 2024 Ukraine has approved the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), which harmonizes environmental, energy, and economic policies for Ukraine's sustainable development. Furthermore, in alignment with EU accession requirements, Ukraine is advancing plans to implement an EU Emissions Trading System by 2025 covering power and industrial sectors, with Ukrainian businesses showing strong interest in a gradual, well-tailored transition that would facilitate integration with the EU ETS [11]. As reflected in President Zelensky's Ukraine's Peace Formula, Ukraine has made the recovery and protection of climate and natural environment a priority, understanding that the preservation of ecosystems not only strengthens communities but also lays the foundation for just and sustainable peace [12].

Supporting Ukraine’s efforts, the UN Development Program and the Government of Sweden have the Coordinated Center for Environmental Damage Assessment [13] to serve as a vital platform to monitor and document war-related climate and environmental impacts, while simultaneously helping to shape Ukraine's green and sustainable reconstruction efforts in a conflict-sensitive manner. With an initial investment of $6.7 million for 2023-2025, the Center is positioned to provide technical expertise, coordinate assessment efforts, and guide sustainable recovery planning. However, given the scale of Ukraine's reconstruction needs and its ambitious climate goals, this initial support requires substantial scaling up and calls for a more comprehensive approach. 

The COP29 Presidency has strategically positioned energy transformation and peace-building as twin pillars of climate action, notably dedicating November 15 specifically to Energy/Peace, Relief and Recovery discussions [14].  The goal is to forge actionable commitments that ensure energy transition efforts actively contribute to peace-building while developing resilient, sustainable energy systems that can function effectively in fragile contexts.

To translate this vision into tangible outcomes, COP29 should consider the development of legal frameworks and implementation mechanisms, including streamlined access to climate finance, simplified approval processes, and risk-sharing mechanisms. Thus, the Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace should be supported by the development of complementary legal instruments at both international and national levels, potentially including dedicated protocols under the UNFCCC, bilateral agreements for climate finance delivery, and national legislation that facilitates implementation in fragile contexts. This legal architecture would help transform the Declaration's voluntary commitments into concrete, enforceable obligations while maintaining the flexibility needed to operate in complex crisis settings.

The COP29 Presidency should mandate integrated programming approaches that combine climate risk assessments with conflict analysis, while prioritizing local ownership and community-based solutions. This requires creating direct access modalities for local organizations and strengthening their capacity to implement projects in conflict-affected areas. Critical to success will be the development of robust monitoring and evaluation frameworks that capture both climate and peace outcomes, supported by standardized indicators and impact assessments. Additionally, multi-stakeholder partnerships should be fostered by creating formal coordination mechanisms between climate funds and peacebuilding organizations, and encouraging blended finance approaches.

Ukraine's experience in maintaining climate commitments amid the ongoing hostilities and reconstruction efforts offers valuable insights for developing these mechanisms. The establishment of specialized financial instruments that can simultaneously address peace-building and climate objectives as well as technical support frameworks must help countries in climate-positive post-conflict recovery. The practical implementation will likely be supported by mandatory reporting systems for energy-peace initiatives, comprehensive verification mechanisms for climate commitments, and specialized dispute resolution procedures addressing climate-security conflicts.

Success will ultimately depend on the COP29 Presidency's ability to mainstream climate-peace considerations across all aspects of climate action - from negotiation tracks and financial mechanisms to implementation frameworks and capacity-building initiatives. This mainstreaming must extend beyond the Peace, Relief, and Recovery Day to influence core UNFCCC processes, including the Global Stocktake, Global Goal on Adaptation, Loss and Damage arrangements, and climate finance deliberations. COP29 must ensure that sustainable peace and climate resilience are recognized as interdependent goals. With this regard, COP29 presents a crucial opportunity to address military emissions within NDCs before COP30's renewal cycle. Currently, GHG emissions from conflicts are not included under the current reporting requirements to the UNFCCC. This integration must be part of a broader recognition that climate action and peace are inextricably linked. 

The evolution from COP28's Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace to COP29's enhanced focus on the climate-security nexus represents a critical shift in global climate governance. This transformation acknowledges that addressing climate challenges in conflict-affected regions requires specialized approaches that integrate peace-building, security considerations, and climate action. Ukraine's experience serves as a compelling case study, demonstrating both the complexities of maintaining climate commitments during conflict and the opportunities for embedding sustainability principles in reconstruction efforts.

However, current initiatives face significant challenges. The voluntary nature of existing commitments, combined with the relatively modest scale of financial pledges compared to actual needs, highlights the gap between ambition and implementation. The planned Baku Climate and Peace Action Hub, while promising, requires robust institutional frameworks and sustainable funding mechanisms to achieve its objectives.

I. Kopytsia. (2024) From COP28 to COP29 with Ukraine at the Front: Linking Climate, Security and Peace.  Available at: https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/cop28-cop29-ukraine-front-linking-climate-security
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[1] Extreme weather events create twice as much displacement, as much as four times the GDP loss and much more sustained economic damage in fragile states compared to others. See: Jaramillo, L., Cebotari, A., Diallo, Y., Gupta, R., Koshima, Y., Kularatne, C., Lee, J. D., Rehman, S., Tintchev, K. I., & Yang, F. (2023). Climate challenges in fragile and conflict-affected states. International Monetary Fund Staff Climate Notes 2023/001. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/staff-climate-notes/Issues/2023/08/24/Climate-Challenges-in-Fragile-and-Conflict-Affected-States-537797

[2] UNFCCC. (2023a). COP28 Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace. https://www.cop28.com/en/cop28-declaration-on-climate-relief-recovery-and-peace

[3] International Monetary Fund. (2024). Policies to Address Climate Change, Ukraine (Selected Issues Paper). European Department. IMF Country Report No 23/400. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

[4] UNFCCC. (2023a). COP28 Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace. https://www.cop28.com/en/cop28-declaration-on-climate-relief-recovery-and-peace

[5] https://cop29.az/en/media-hub/news/cop29-presidency-welcomes-joint-communique-of-the-cop29-climate-and-peace-co-lead-initiative

[6] https://www.iom.int/news/iom-chief-and-cop29-presidency-address-climate-peace-human-mobility-nexus-during-unga

[7] Amid a surge in emissions from direct warfare, landscape fires, rerouted flights, forced migration and leaks caused by military attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure – as well as the future carbon cost of reconstruction. CEOBS (Conflict and Environment Observatory) (2023). Ukraine War Environmental Briefing: January 2024. 2023. https://ceobs.org/ukraine-conflict-environmental-briefing-nature/

[8] Zagoruichyk, A., Savytskyi, O., Kopytsia, I. and O’Callaghan, B. (2023), The Green Phoenix Framework: a climate-positive plan for economic recovery in Ukraine, working paper, Oxford: Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment – University of Oxford, June 2023

[9] Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. (2024). Framework Climate Law approved in Ukraine - Ministry of Environmental Protection. Government Portal. URL: https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/v-ukraini-skhvalenyi-ramkovyi-klimatychnyi-zakon-mindovkillia

[10] Majkut and Dawes (2022), ‘Opportunities and Challenges for Renewable Energy Generation in Ukraine’.

[11] Jacob Kirkegaard (2024). Rebuild, Decarbonize, and Integrate: Ukraine, the EU, and the Road to Net-Zero in the Energy Sector. German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). URL: https://www.gmfus.org/news/rebuild-decarbonize-and-integrate-ukraine-eu-and-road-net-zero-energy-sector

[12] https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-zavzhdi-bula-liderom-mirotvorchih-zusil-yaksho-rosi-79141

[13] https://www.undp.org/ukraine/press-releases/new-coordination-center-assess-environmental-impacts-war-ukraine

[14] https://cop29.az/en/pages/cop29-presidency-action-agenda-letter